Bath’s buoyant economy will help the West of England become one of Europe’s fastest-growing city-regions for job creation over the next three years with thousands of new posts in the digital and creative sectors, according to a new economic forecast.
By adding forecasts for Bath’s economy to those for its larger neighbour Bristol, the region packs a more powerful punch, a gathering of Bath property industry leaders heard yesterday.
Bristol and Bath combined ranks high in a Europe-wide table for jobs growth between 2019 and 2022 – behind some capital cities such as Madrid and Stockholm but outperforming others including Berlin and Paris.
The city-region’s employment growth rate of more than 3.5% in the research by Oxford Economics, also places it higher than Milan.
The report shows that last year the jobs market in Bristol and Bath combined grew by around 2% – the sixth highest in Europe and greater than London or Manchester.
In the UK, Bristol and Bath will boast the third-fastest growing employment market in the period 2018-2021 with a rate of around 5.3% – equivalent to 6.070 new jobs. That places it behind Manchester, in the number one spot, and Birmingham but above Leeds, London, Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The figures were presented to an event staged by the regional office of international property group JLL.
JLL senior analyst Cameron Ramsey said when he added Oxford Economics’ forecasts for Bath’s economy to those for Bristol – which JLL had presented at a similar recent event in the city – it showed that the combined city-region was even more successful.
“Bristol has performed well and will continue to do so,” he said. “But when you add the forecasts for Bath, the two combined perform even better.”
The strength of the economy of the Bath area and its desirability as a place to live also emerged from JLL’s presentations. House prices in Bath shot up by 5.8% last year – the highest in the region – while those in most other locations slowed. By contrast, prices in Bristol rose by 3.5% and in Exeter by just 2.1%.
The continued demand for new homes around Bath also meant developers were now paying record prices for land. Housebuilder Crest paid an unprecedented £2m an acre for around 16 acres at its Hygge Park development of two, three and four-bedroom homes at Keynsham.
The upbeat outlook for the Bristol and Bath region was highlighted during the event, including its ability to attract businesses and people working in tech from other locations.
JLL lead director in the region, Simon Peacock, said the fourth industrial revolution driven by the tech sector would see the next few years define which cities became the destination for choice for tech businesses.
“With Centre for Cities predicting that in 11 years 21% of all current jobs won’t exist, cities are in ‘an arms race with other city-regions’ to attract these businesses,” he said.
“As big companies, as well as niche firms, grow their tech jobs, they are being forced to rethink where they are located and seek out cities where they can access the skills base needed.
“In Bristol and Bath we do well in attracting and keeping the talent these tech firms so badly need, but we must have better transport links and convince our councils and communities of the need to grow and change if we want our cities to secure this prize and prosper.
“There are two things that are essential for the future success of Bristol city centre, or indeed any town or city centre; they are strong civic leadership and a vision for the future.”
That meant changes to the retail sector ushered in by a raft of shop closures should be an opportunity, not a threat, he said.
“We need more housing, we need investment in infrastructure and more places for people to work. It’s a no brainer to capitalise on the opportunities changes to our retail landscape and transport hubs bring to ensure our city’s future prosperity.”
